IPSOS GLOBAL TRENDS

IN SEARCH OF A NEW CONSENSUS: FROM TENSION TO INTENTION.

September 2024

Welcome to Ipsos Global Trends

We launched the regular Ipsos Global Trends study in 2014, to provide a comprehensive view of how the world feels from a human perspective. Ten years on, we show what is unchanged and what has shifted in public attitudes and values.

'In Search of a New Consensus: from Tension to Intention', our latest edition, unveils Ipsos' refreshed framework of nine Global Trends, which we introduce in the next section. These are based on more than 50,000 interviews across 50 markets representing three-quarters of the world's population and 90% of the world's GDP, which separates our report from any other "trend report" you might read. There is no better tool to understand the context of society, markets and people.

Each of the nine Trends we have identified is important on its own, but there are also clear inter-relationships that emerge when the trends are examined together.

Three key tensions have become more acute over the past decade, and three key constants explain perpetual feelings people hold about world around them.

Understanding people, their tensions and intentions is crucial in mapping positive possible futures and opportunities for both brands and policy makers.

Through the data and expert analysis, you'll get a comprehensive picture of today's global citizen, and a view of the trajectory these trends are taking.

Ben Page, Global CEO, Ipsos

Contents

1. Introduction
2. The Macro Context
3. Trends & Framework Introduction
4. What's Next & Technical Information

INTRODUCTION

Executive Summary

In thinking about how humanity is reacting to change, context is king — but is always complex. Local and national culture have huge impacts. More than eight in ten citizens across 50 global markets feel that the world is moving too fast. While this has always been true, it feels even more so in an age of mass data, social data and AI that has never existed before.

Public pessimism and private optimism

Overall people feel overwhelmed by the complex geopolitical, economic, and technology shifts they can see all around them, to say nothing of climate change. But as we look beyond the headlines, we see the human reaction to this uncertainty: an inward personal focus, with a flourishing sense of individualism, enhanced by new choices over lifestyle and consumption.

In search of a new consensus

There is now a clear tension in many societies between the primary concerns of different groups and a lack of consensus on how to achieve growth. The unravelling of the post-World War Two world has impacted us all. The end of communism in 1991, and the entry of China into global markets, released huge global economic growth. Then democracy and neo-liberal capitalism came under pressure after the 2008 global financial crash as living standards stopped rising and people searched for who was to blame. All this was further exacerbated — and inequalities were exposed — more recently through the Covid-19 pandemic.

Since the start of this century Ipsos has observed a widespread "loss of the future": a tension we see in this edition of Global Trends. Three-quarters (75%) believe it is natural for each generation to have a higher standard of living than their parents. The challenge is that all over the world — especially in the US, LATAM and Europe — this seems less and less likely for large groups of people, who are experiencing "the loss of the future". In this macro environment, where most people (75%) also believe governments will do too little to help them in the years ahead, and often trust governments less than brands, populists have fertile support - as the demand for protection from outsiders rises.

Executive Summary

In all this there are some clear tensions:

We are more global, yet more introspective: interest in global brands and culture is more widespread than ten years ago despite rising geopolitical tensions, but we also see a rising interest in just focusing on the self.

We are more nostalgic, yet more open-minded: nostalgic sentiment has risen across a swathe of markets but there has been significant movement from the morals of yesteryear too: the world has continued to become more liberal.

We are more environmental, yet more fatalistic: the world is near consensus on the facts of climate change, but the public are unclear how to help without clear leadership from brands and governments.

It is also worth remembering some constants:

The world is always changing too fast: it is the human condition to feel that things are more dangerous, lower quality, or simply worse than they were in the past.

We always worry about data privacy: contradictory impulses to control or share personal data have continued for a decade without resolution.

We are forever more optimistic closer to home: even when we feel the world is on the brink, we are a lot more certain that things are on the up for us and our families.

A strong theme this year is that among all these tensions, people are acting with intent to take control of their futures. Brands, organisations, and nations can also act with similar intent, using tools like our Trends and Macro Forces to identify paths to alternative futures that build on public attitudes, and where they are willing to be led.

What does Ipsos Global Trends mean for leaders?

People's choices are often economic, but not only economic. Over the past decade, every trended market we examine has shown an average double-digit increase in people saying they buy from brands that reflect their personal values. People want more from their governments, too. People will always react to the change around them: the data and analysis here is intended for you to react to and plan with.

How we built the Trends for this edition

Our framework is a product of collaboration between Ipsos colleagues across nearly 90 markets using Ipsos' Theory of Change — a model for exploring how Macro Forces (the external context against which people and organisations act), Shifts (changes in attitudes and values across society, markets and people) and Signals (visible real-world expressions of change observed at local and more surface levels) pull and push one another, interact and cause tension, and ultimately allow us to identify trends.

At Ipsos, our curiosity about society, markets, and people is what drives us — so at the heart of our trends sits the largest public survey in Ipsos history of over 50,000 interviews, resulting in over five million data points. We used advanced analytics to identify 23 human values, that to a lesser or greater extent, unite humans across the globe. These sit at the heart of our robust and reliable data driven framework.

In this report we also explore and present Signals and outline our updated Macro Force Framework. Equipped with this context, we have subsequently identified nine global Trends — which you can read at a glance on the next page.

GLOBAL TRENDS

• Globalisation Fractures
• Splintered Societies
• Climate Convergence
• Technowonder
• Conscientious Health
• Retreat to Old Systems
• Nouveau Nihilism
• The Power of Trust
• Escape to Individualism

Ipsos Global Trends at a glance

Globalisation Fractures

While the world remains highly interconnected, globalisation is seen as having winners and losers, both at the market level and personally. Focus on playing up local strengths as well as global cooperation and scale.

Splintered Societies

Rising inequality leads to a splintering of traditional structures with new ideologies and political allegiances emerging. People feel that businesses and governments need to do more. Focus on commitment to our many shared values worldwide to help lower temperatures at home.

Climate Convergence

Worldwide investment in climate resilience and mitigation is rising, as the impacts of climate change become more evident. Focus on demonstrating commitment at the organisation and market level, but also help people feel that they are contributing, too.

Technowonder

As technology becomes more pervasive, there is a tension between excitement for all the problem-solving tools, connection and entertainment technology can bring us and concerns about privacy, job loss and potential for misuse. Focus on identifying the benefits and reducing concerns.

Conscientious Health

Health understanding is more holistic, tied to both our physical and our mental wellness. Tensions persist in terms of who has access to care. Focus on helping people navigate this ever more complicated landscape with clear, trusted information and accessible solutions.

Retreat to Old Systems

As an escape to nostalgia is widely appealing, some people also yearn to revert to historical power structures around religion, politics, gender and more. Focus on the positive aspects of the past but realise that not everyone wants to return to it.

Nouveau Nihilism

As economic stresses are preventing many from realising their long-term dreams, a sometimes-but-not-always-fatalistic "live for the moment" attitude is rising. Focus on helping people bridge the gap between their aspirations and their realities.

The Power of Trust

As we are bombarded with information, we crave authentic messages from trusted sources but have a harder time figuring out who and what to believe. Focus on aligning your shared values with those of your audience to build trusted relationships.

Escape to Individualism

As the world feels overwhelming, people are focusing on one thing they can control — themselves. But there's a tension between those who strive for stature and those who focus more inward. Focus on leveraging trusted relationships to help people express their identities as they choose, even if they choose historical norms.

THE MACRO CONTEXT

The Macro Context: Geopolitical and demographic instability

Global Dynamics: Fragmentation, populism, and geopolitical tensions

The fractures in globalisation are driven by an increasingly intermingled and overlapping set of forces: the rise and fall of middle classes increases political polarisation and fuels radical populist and nationalist tendencies. These in turn contribute to geopolitical conflicts, which can cause or accelerate community migration and population displacement. Migration can then drive political opinion towards extremes inhabited by radicals, populists and nationalists. This fosters a global environment that challenges the previous growth in open trade.

Innovation and Ambition: The upside of global challenges

Yet as we have seen in the past, tension breeds innovation: we see heavy investment accelerating the energy transition and AI and automation advances, and a quickening drumbeat of discoveries, from quantum computers and nuclear fusion, to breakthrough therapies and access to space. In 2023, 2,664 objects were launched into orbit — a decade prior it was just 210, according to the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs.

Demographic Changes: Fluctuating populations

The global total fertility rate — the number of children expected to be born to a woman over her lifetime — hit 2.3 in 2023, barely above the 2.1 replacement rate, according to the United Nations. What this means is that at some point this century we will likely hit "peak people" and the global population will start to decline.

For countries in Europe, East Asia and North America, the immediate consequence of this demographic change is ageing and falling populations, which risks straining welfare and health systems in the coming years and can sap younger generations of their hope for the future. Business too will have to adapt — older consumers will form an increasingly larger segment, at the expense of younger segments where marketing was traditionally focused.

Others in Africa and Asia hope for an oncoming demographic dividend as their populations age into their economically productive prime: in Niger today, the average age of a citizen is just 14.

The Macro Context:

Climate change and diversity remodelling society

Demographic Diversification: Openness, inequality and diversity

In some markets greater ethnic and religious diversity, systemic health inequality and increasing wealth disparity are challenging many of the assumptions on which the most affluent societies have been based.

Rising inequality is the chief driver: the wealth owned by the richest 0.01% of the population has doubled since 1995, reaching nearly 12% today. In India, the top 1% of the population hold 40.1% of the wealth, while the poorest half have just 6.4%, according to a report from the World Inequality Lab.

Yet in fragmentation we also see a higher level of identity acceptance. Though sometimes controversial, the blurring or erasing of pre-defined categories and the acceptance of holding multiple orientations and identities point to a strength of a splintering society; that it is more open, even as some feel left behind.

Combatting Climate Change: Investment and innovation

The effects of climate change, loss of biodiversity and resource depletion are now very tangible: combined economic losses from natural disasters in 2023 stood at $380 billion, 22% above the 21st century average to date, per AON.

The steps required to build these solutions are urgent and demand significant investment today if they are to have impacts on many countries' drive to "net zero" emissions by 2050.

The costs to states, businesses and individual taxpayers feel steeper still in a context of moderate to slow economic growth, high levels of debt and the aftershocks of a global inflationary surge.

Changing Values: Societies being remade

Falling birth rates, continued urbanisation and higher educational achievement also drive change in our societies, changing the balance away from previously dominant ways of living, working and socialising.

In Europe, North America and East Asia, this has direct implications for the balance of power between employers and employees, driving employers to consider a wider range of candidates and contemplate how they recruit, train and retain a more diverse workforce from a shrinking talent pool.

Almost a quarter of the way through the 21st century, alternative value structures are being built, particularly among younger generations. Yet it is an open question whether this will lead to a global convergence of lived experience, or a slow drifting apart.

We can see signs of ongoing liberalisation of values across the world, but also persistent differences in values and cultures, as well as some divides that have grown: one example is young men and young women's views of diversity and equity issues in the US and Europe.

The Macro Context:

Technology, trust and the future

Technology: The problem and the solution

Technological change is at the centre of both expectations and fears globally. Recent biotech developments, ranging from rapid vaccine development, through GLP-1 drugs for the treatment of diabetes and other conditions, to the use of generative AI to discover new antibiotics are exciting not just for medics, patients and consumers, but also for investors: the market value of the Danish firm Novo Nordisk, which manufactures the drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, is now larger than the entire Danish economy.

The long-term impact of automation and generative AI on employment and work is one of the most controversial areas of development. Another contentious area is the role generative AI can play in creating and distributing disinformation; in more splintered and segmented societies, the scope of these problems is multiplied.

Yet technology was vital in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic; rapid development of drugs and contact tracing apps allowed us to address the immediate crisis without dealing with the underlying social fragility it revealed. If anything, society today is more fragile than it was in 2019, meaning that the role of technology will be more important still in future crises.

Trust and Authority: Building for the future

Recent global crises reveal both the tremendous importance of trust and its fragility. While trust in many institutions has been low for decades, today's tensions may have led us into a more acute phase.

One common response is more regulation: to take one example, in the wake of global food inflation, retailers and food manufacturers in some markets are facing new regulation designed to thwart what authorities see as profiteering from rising prices.

That fact that the causes of recent crises were clear ahead of time naturally leads us to question the ability of authorities to plan for the future or learn lessons from the past. This brings us to the central theme of this year's Ipsos Global Trends: a turn inwards to support the self.

As you have just read, the macro context does not act in isolation, but our framework on the next page provides a starting point to discuss and debate the consequences of the external environment for your organisation.

Ipsos' Macro Forces

The external context, against which people and organisations act, can be distilled into six Macro Forces and related themes. While they do not act in isolation, our framework is a starting point to discuss and debate the consequences of the external environment for your organisation.

Societies in flux

• Population fluctuation
• Community migration & displacement
• Life stage & family evolutions
• Greater ethnic & religious diversity
• Identity acceptance

Tech-celeration

• Pervasive technology
• The immersive frontier
• AI & automation advances
• Exponential data
• Toll of technology

Economic disparities

• Rise & fall of middle classes
• Employee power shift
• Wealth disparity
• Rising cost of living
• Alternative value structures

Environmental emergencies

• Climate change
• Loss of biodiversity
• Sustainable growth
• Resource depletion

Political splintering

• Rising nationalism & populism
• Technology's dark side
• Rethinking institutions
• Increasing geopolitical conflicts
• Entrenched inequality

Wellness revolution

• Systemic health inequality
• Breakthrough therapies
• Integration of health & technology
• The next pandemic

TRENDS & FRAMEWORK INTRODUCTION

Our Trend Framework

Our analysis has identified nine Trends, and 23 Values that tell the story of what it's like to be human in 2024.

The big picture is more forbidding than it was previously — the international global order and our national societies both appear to be under immense pressure, while climate change has become a pressing enough threat to unite much of global opinion.

Technology is moving at a far faster pace than ten years ago. It is acting as an accelerant of further progress, bringing wonder and worry in near-equal measure.

The responses we see from people are a turn inwards, focusing on the issues we feel we can most easily control, such as our health.

Some seek sanctuary in the warm glow of nostalgia for an imagined past, or by trying to remake the world to be more like it was before. Others simply shrug their shoulders and focus on living in the moment.

This has two important impacts: a more uncertain world for brands which are expected to align with individuals' divergent worldviews but also continue to deliver quality products and customer service.

For individuals, autonomy and self-control become the new status symbols as evidence that we can shape our own destinies in a more complex and unpredictable world.

Global Trends Framework

• Globalisation Fractures
• Splintered Societies
• Climate Convergence
• Technowonder
• Conscientious Health
• Retreat to Old Systems
• Nouveau Nihilism
• The Power of Trust
• Escape to Individualism

The contradictory world of human opinions

Tensions exist within each of the trends of course. Humans are complicated and all of us are capable of holding conflicting ideas at the same time. Psychologists call this "cognitive polyphasia".

For example, while the majority believe that technology is destroying our lives, a larger majority think that only modern technology can solve our future problems (71%). Understanding these tensions helps us see why people behave differently in similar situations and gets at the rich nuances of human motivation.

Some tensions are generational within countries, some cross borders. Tensions about gender do both: eight in ten people in Pakistan agree that women's main role in society is to be good mothers and wives, but only 13% in Portugal, and under 20% in Sweden and Ireland say the same.

Businesses and organisations must learn how to navigate this complexity: global organisations face unique challenges. National ones can deal with one set of tough challenges, while global businesses have to navigate much more diverse situations.

There is widespread agreement that brands can do good things for the world and make money and that businesses have a "duty" to do good things for the world. However, trust that business will achieve these "win-wins" is lower, with eight in ten thinking there needs to be more government regulation of corporate environmental impacts. A similar number think "we are heading toward environmental disaster" if we do not change our habits quickly.

Over the past decade we have seen double-digit increases in the proportion of people saying they tend to buy from brands that reflect their personal values. In fact, every core market shows an increase compared with ten years ago. Yet half also say they do not care about a brand's social or ethical responsibility, so long as they make good products. How is a brand or a policy maker supposed to navigate supporting people's values, when such values are so internally and externally conflicted?

People might not see the idiosyncrasies in their own attitudes, but they see the conflict and tension around them.

Three in four say they see more conflict between people who do not share the same values in their nation, and almost half see it in their own families.

How does a leader lead in this environment and balance all the tensions?

Our nine Trends cover a broad range of contexts from geopolitical to deeply personal. That is relevant because people — your customers, citizens, audience, and patients — are dealing with issues across those dimensions, too.

Our closing Trends take us from the global to the human level. In response to the chaos people see in the world around them, we see a flourishing of individuality and an inward focus. As the world spins out of people's control, they want to lean into controlling their world: their physical and mental health, their identity, their data. So understanding the values that drive people is crucial.

A unique opportunity to understand human values

Asking questions about what it means to be both citizen and consumer across 50 markets, we can use statistical analysis to uncover hidden connections and new relationships between people's attitudes.

Our analysis has surfaced 23 human values — each compromising a set of strongly correlated questions. By presenting these on a map, we can start to understand how closely aligned people's values are. The further apart two values are — for instance, Nativism and Global Outlook — the less likely a single person might be to hold both values.

We have plotted the values onto four quadrants, oriented towards the system (top half of the map) or the self (bottom half of the map), and between a negative or positive reaction to today's world (left to right parts of the map).

The five most intense values that unite humans globally (highlighted in bold) are in the system part of the map but balanced between optimism and pessimism. The five least intense values — those that are less likely to unite humans around the world (highlight in italics) — are all in the bottom half of the map. While these are less intense, they may show signs of greater growth in the future and need careful attention.

The 23 values that underpin our nine Trends support a more intimate understanding of each, making our framework more actionable for you.

Top 5 Values (most intense, system-oriented):

• Autonomy
• Wealth Redistribution
• Informed Consumerism
• Health Improvement
• Health Self-Reliance

Bottom 5 Values (least intense, self-oriented):

• Nativism
• Nostalgia
• Social Status
• Longevity
• Equity
• Traditionalism

Four Quadrants:

• Pessimistic quadrant (System/Negativity): Technological Worry, Technological Fatalism, Experience, Anti-establishment, Nativism
• Optimistic quadrant (System/Positivity): Informed Consumerism, Climate Responsibility, Health Improvement, Brand Worship, Global Outlook, Health Self-Reliance, Technological Optimism, National Pride, Seeking Curiosity
• Reactionary quadrant (Self/Negativity): Nostalgia, Anti-establishment
• Ego quadrant (Self/Positivity): Social Status, Living in the Moment, Longevity, Equity, Traditionalism, Simplicity

Globalisation Fractures

Trend: Perceptions of globalisation have improved in many markets around the world over the past decade. While the world remains highly interconnected, the geopolitical environment has grown more contested. Increasingly, political leaders are asserting the primacy of their nation and its allies.

Tension: Despite the development of a more positive view on the impacts of globalisation, geopolitical headwinds are promoting a focus on one's nation.

Takeaway: Even global brands can and should play up their local ties — while also highlighting the benefits of their scale.

Values

• Global Outlook
• National Pride

Beyond peak globalisation

Globalisation Fractures

The biggest tension in this trend is between slow improvements in how globalisation is perceived by the public and the tenor of international political debate as conflicts persist. Another key factor is changes in the middle class, which is shrinking in many regions but growing in some. People often link these changes (positive and negative) to the effects of globalisation, and those sentiments are leading to shifts in opinion.

Terms like "derisking" and "decoupling" dominate, with many companies outside of China launching "China +1" strategies to diversify their supply chain.

Further, the rebirth of industrial strategy and stimulus has led to a search for national champions in strategic sectors such as microchip manufacturing, generative AI and rare earth metal refining.

Both tendencies are visible in the data:

Under the value of Global Outlook, we find 60% agreeing that globalisation is good for them personally. Agreement is highest among emerging markets in Africa as well as in China, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, where four in five concur.

Yet in the value of National Pride we find a similar proportion (63%) saying they are very proud of their country. As with perceptions of globalisation it is European nations who are less proud, with Germany at the foot of the table on 41%.

As our Values map suggests, these viewpoints need not be adversarial; indeed, there is a reasonably strong correlation between agreement in both questions.

At present many in the global public remain positive on globalisation and also positive about their nation, pointing to a future where an optimistic view of globalisation and the nation are self-reinforcing.

63% agree "I feel very proud of my country"

Ten-year trend: Globalisation Fractures

Improving public views of globalisation are one of the enduring stories from the past decade of Ipsos Global Trends.

Across all types of markets, we have seen a slow rise in the proportion of citizens who believe that globalisation is good for their country. This is as true in China, which has long been one of the most positive about global trade, as it is in France where the public are typically the least enamoured with the term. The only exception in the 19 markets we have tracked is Sweden, where still more than half are positive this year.

This is a good news story against a backdrop of a more polarised and competitive world — through a decade of pandemic, war and adversarial political rhetoric, the proportion of people around the world who see the benefits of global economic connection has risen and remains higher than a decade ago.

% agree "globalisation is good for my country"

Country	2013	2024
China	81%	87%
Argentina	57%	65%
US	62%	55%
Sweden	37%	49%
France	24%	35%

Base: Varies between years. Data shown is based on 19 Comparable Markets that were questioned in both 2013 and 2024.

Comparable markets: Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Great Britain, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Türkiye, United States.

Source: Ipsos Global Trends 2024 and Ipsos Global Trends 2014

Globalisation: good for me and the country?

Perspectives on the benefits of globalisation, for the self and for the country, march in lockstep. Nearly all citizens see globalisation as one tide that lifts — or sinks — all boats.

All nations where a minority say globalisation is good for either the self or society are European or North American. The French are the least enthused (although support has risen over the past decade) alongside the Belgians and Croatians. Even the United States, a huge beneficiary of globalisation at a market level, has public scepticism about it and fits into this double negative category.

By contrast, it is emerging markets that are the most positive — the public in Nigeria, Kenya, Indonesia, Zambia and China, among others, are the most enamoured.

Globalisation is good for me vs. good for my country

Scatter plot showing % agree "globalisation is good for me personally" (y-axis) vs % agree "globalisation is good for my country" (x-axis) across 32 markets. R² = 0.8964.

Driving Forces of Globalisation Fractures

Signals

The internet fragments

Social networking firm Meta has announced it will not roll out its multimodal AI model virtual assistant in the European Union due to regulatory uncertainty.

"Guochao" or "national trend"

The American coffee company Starbucks has long tapped into younger Chinese consumers' more traditional cultural interests. It recently opened another "intangible cultural heritage" concept store in Suzhou, China based on a traditional tea shop.

Global brands, local pride

Food conglomerate Nestlé has launched a special edition of one of its chocolate bars in Rio Grande do Sul province in Brazil. Its name has been changed from the Portuguese for "boy" to the equivalent word in the local dialect of the province.

The most impactful Macro Force themes affecting this trend

• Rise and fall of middle classes
• Community migration and displacement
• Resource depletion
• Rising nationalism and populism
• Increasing geopolitical conflicts
• Pervasive technology

Navigating a mosaic of globalised and deglobalised trade

Thought Starters

The global trade system is becoming an increasing source of tension — while the headwinds are leading to a world that is more multipolar with fragmented and localised supply chains, much of world trade remains very closely integrated. How can you identify and track areas of change to ensure your business remains resilient in a part-de-globalised world?

This tension also has implications for brand, with the balance of preference between global and local brands becoming tighter and more competitive. How can you adjust your approach to match shifting consumer preferences? What unique value can you offer that combines the benefits of globalisation with the appeal of local or national products?

"Many local consumer brands in Asia have begun to outpace global competitors, offering better pricing, locally-tailored preferences, and greater agility in responding to rapidly changing local trends. Some local consumer brands have also successfully entered the global market, demonstrated their quality, and boosted their brand value. This development signals to global brands the increasing necessity of accommodating local tastes and market dynamics more than ever before."

— Irfan Setiawan, Ipsos in Indonesia

Splintered Societies

Trend: Large income and wealth disparities are widely recognised as detrimental to society, yet in many countries they have widened over the past decade. The intensity of this feeling has resulted in heightened societal stress and a splintering of traditional structures, with new ideologies and political allegiances emerging.

Tension: As societies worldwide age and begin to shrink, immigration will be the primary dividing line. Around the globe, about half feel that immigration has a positive impact on their society. But even more feel that there are too many immigrants.

Takeaway: People also feel that businesses need to contribute more to society. Demonstrating this more clearly could help reduce the temperature of people's feelings about inequality worldwide and at home.

Values

• Wealth Inequality
• Nativism
• Equity

Rising attention on our divisions

Not only is there fracturing of sentiment about globalisation, but within borders and even households, there is tension as well. This year of elections has drawn greater attention to the divisions many see within their societies.

Three quarters (76%) across the 50 markets in this study agree there is rising conflict between people who hold different sets of values; half (46%) say the same about differences of opinion within their own families.

With a perception of heightened conflict, our value of Equity speaks to experiences of discrimination based on gender, age, race and sexuality. But while it is a value many strive for, it is the value least likely to unite us globally. Progress — as on climate change — will need to come from business and government leadership.

Immigration continues to be a salient divide as global movement rises, driving the backlash found in our value of Nativism. Seven in ten (71%) agree that employers should prioritise hiring local people over immigrants when jobs are scarce, making it one of the few remaining acceptable forms of discrimination.

Yet despite strong competition, economic inequality remains one of the most salient divides. Indeed, the value of Wealth Distribution is one of the top five strongest this year, and across all waves of Global Trends around three quarters have agreed that having large differences in income and wealth is bad for society overall.

Almost three quarters also perceive the economy of their country to be rigged, while a similar proportion say the wealthy in society should pay more tax (76%) and that large income gaps are bad for society (77%).

While these values focus on how our societies are pulling apart, they also contain the seeds of how we might pull together.

Families remain more united than wider society, and there is a clear role for businesses to demonstrate their commitment to society and to social and political causes. The challenge is in understanding which causes will unite.

77% agree that having large differences in income and wealth is bad for society

Who needs immigration?

It is often presented as an uncomfortable truth for many living in ageing societies that they may become more reliant on immigration over the coming decades. Yet our analysis suggest that older societies are less likely to agree that there are too many immigrants.

Among younger societies — those which are defined by the WHO as ageing or not yet ageing (with less than 14% of their citizens aged over 65), seven in ten agree there are too many immigrants, perhaps because economic pressures are higher in many of these societies.

"There are too many immigrants in my country"

% agree in the markets that are classified as the four population ageing groups as defined by the World Health Organisation

Population Group	% Agree
Not yet ageing (Less than 7% aged 65+)	71%
Ageing (Between 7 and 14% aged 65+)	72%
Aged (Between 14 and 21% aged 65+)	52%
Super-aged (21% or more aged 65+)	57%

Immigration issues

Globally, 62% agree there are too many immigrants in their country, while 48% agree that immigration has a positive impact on national society.

Just two countries — New Zealand and Vietnam — are doubly positive, seeing immigration as a boon for their society and disagreeing that there are too many immigrants. By contrast, in almost half of the markets (22) the public are doubly negative, including much of Europe.

Many more are somewhere in between — in 18 markets, including the United States, Great Britain and Brazil, a majority are agreed on the positive social impacts of immigration, yet also feel that there are too many immigrants in their country at present.

Immigration has a positive impact vs. There are too many immigrants in…

Scatter plot showing % agree immigration has a positive impact on society (y-axis) vs % agree there are too many immigrants in my country (x-axis) across multiple markets, segmented into: More Positive About Immigration, Mixed Views, More Concerned About Immigration, and Lower Salience quadrants.

Driving Forces of Splintered Societies

Signals

Widening access to financial services

The Spanish Neobank Ikualo allows immigrants in Europe who might lack the types of documentation typically required to access financial services. Its in-app identity verification service allows people to open an account with only a passport.

Refugees for the climate transition

In the Netherlands an organisation called The Switch has set up a programme to recruit and train refugees to overcome a significant shortfall in skilled engineers and workers for the energy transition.

Democratising information

A new chatbot in India provides Indian farmers with real-time market information about crop prices, tackling knowledge asymmetry and helping them to negotiate better deals for their produce with purchasers.

The most impactful Macro Force themes affecting this trend

• Greater ethnic and religious diversity
• Systemic health inequality
• Climate change
• Increasing geopolitical conflicts
• Population fluctuation
• Wealth disparity

How to build and maintain mass appeal in a centrifugal era?

Thought Starters

Many societies in our study appear to be centrifugal — individuals do not share cultural and economic goals but instead seek out brands and experiences that align with their own personal values and beliefs. How can your brand build multi-faceted associations with consumers to help them appeal to a broader audience?

In this context, the moments that still unite us assume even greater importance. What can you take from these moments to create content that reaches across divides?

There is also a challenge for organisations internally — how can you engage in genuine, transparent communication with employees that reflects their values and is also mindful of the diverse perspectives within your staff?

"In Latin America, decades of polarization between left- and right-wing governments, exacerbated by corruption, have left no room for centrist options. Persistent lack of job opportunities, education access, monetary poverty, and violence have fragmented societies. Increasing immigrant flows seeking better lives add tension among locals due to scarce opportunities. To evolve, Latin American societies must embrace diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) in our new multicultural reality."

— Luis Giraldo, Ipsos in Colombia

Climate Convergence

Trend: The macro environment for climate is changing rapidly as worldwide investment in renewables continues to rise and the impacts of global warming become more evident. Our data reflects this: globally, views on the importance of climate action are converging, and have increased in intensity over the past ten years. The key question now is how far — and how fast — people are willing to change their daily lives to reach shared goals.

Tension: While outright denial and scepticism is rare, there are real differences between a core for whom climate is the lead issue and the wider population who flirt with disengagement.

Takeaway: Brands should demonstrate commitment because people expect companies to help and don't think they're doing enough. But people also need help to feel like they are contributing to solutions — through everything from policy to programming to packaging.

Values

• Climate Responsibility